WoW Growth
Blizzard recently trumpeted hitting the 10 million subscriber mark for World of Warcraft, a milestone which helped push Blizzard's revenue for 2007 to a record high $1.2 billion.
However, WoW does not release detailed subscriber information (like Linden Lab does for Second Life). Instead, Blizzard periodically puts out press releases announcing a new milestone in the WoW subscriber base. Fortunately, it is possible to take these irregular press releases and compile a rough timeline of the growth in WoW subscribers (thanks to the Wayback Machine). The graph above (click on it for a larger version) displays such information from WoW’s inception in November 2004 to January 2008. I’m also including a table of data that includes some sparse geographic detail.
| | Global | North | | Asia | |
| | Total | America | Europe | Total | China |
| 11/23/04 | 0.0 | | | | |
| 1/10/05 | 0.6 | | | | |
| 3/17/05 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | | |
| 6/14/05 | 2.0 | | | | |
| 7/20/05 | 3.5 | | | | 1.5 |
| 8/29/05 | 4.0 | 1.0 | | | |
| 10/28/05 | 4.5 | | | | |
| 12/19/05 | 5.0 | | | | |
| 1/19/06 | 5.5 | | 1.0 | | |
| 2/28/06 | 6.0 | | | | |
| 11/9/06 | 7.5 | | | | |
| 1/11/07 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | | 3.5 |
| 3/7/07 | 8.5 | | | | |
| 7/24/07 | 9.0 | | | | |
| 12/2/07 | 9.3 | | | | |
| 1/22/08 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5.5 | |
The data suggest a slowing rate of player acquisition. Although WoW doesn’t give exact year-over-year changes, it has released subscriber figures in January of 2005 to 2008. This allows us to roughly estimate how WoW grew over a three year period. In 2005, the number of WoW accounts went from 600,000 to 5.5 million. That’s a change of more than 800% or 4.9 million players, averaging about 410,000 additions per month. In 2006, growth slowed by almost one-half, to 2.5 million (210,000 per month). Finally, in 2007 the number of WoW subscribers grew by just 2 million, dropping to 170,000 new players per month.
| | | | | Average |
| | Total | Annual Change | Gain per | |
| | Subscribers | Million | Percent | Month |
| 1/10/05 | 0.6 | | | |
| 1/19/06 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 817% | 410,000 |
| 1/11/07 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 45% | 210,000 |
| 1/22/08 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 25% | 170,000 |
Of course, adding even 2 million users in a single year still puts WoW in a category all its own. Many MMORPGs struggle to reach 100,000 or 200,000 total users. Nor are there any other games that appear to be in position to pose any sort of seriour threat to WoW. Indeed, the data I’ve seen indicates that WoW stands alone atop the mountain, with no one else even close. Still, though, these numbers suggest that the sheen of invulverability surrounding WoW might perhaps be wearing off. Is WoW approaching its market saturation point? Do the string of new MMOs on the market collectively constitute a competitor for WoW that are peeling off potential customers?
Blizzard defines its subscriber count thusly:
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules.
