Friday, September 12, 2008

The Air Force Embraces Virtual Worlds

The U.S. military has been at the forefront of exploring the uses of online gaming technology, primarily as a training tool. In January 2008, the Air Force published “On Learning: The Future of Air Force Education and Training,” a white paper from the Air Education and Training Command. The paper was notable because it laid out in some detail a proposal for an Air Force virtual world called MyBase.

Well, now there is an official RFP (request for proposal), with an October 3rd deadline. According to the Statement of Need, the proposed MyBase virtual world is rather limited in scope, with just 600 total users. Still, the Statement of Need envisions a fairly complete virtual world:

AETC requires a software application capable of simulating a training classroom on a typical Air Force base with both a flying and technical training mission. … The experience inside the virtual world will be 3D, geospatially accurate, and real-time. Users will participate in MyBase as avatars as well as take part in real-time live audio/video activities. The virtual world is persistent and when users are in-world, any changes they make to MyBase affect it forever forward and for all users until new changes occur. Users feel immersed in their experience as they engage with other users and content.

Returning to the white paper, the AETC foresaw a number of potential uses for MyBase.

Through an Avatar, Airmen will be afforded opportunities to participate in live, virtual and constructive learning opportunities in online classrooms, receive mentoring or personnel services, attend [Professional Military Education], participate in meetings, access knowledge bases, or collaborate on projects. Upon leaving the Air Force, some Airmen may even remain as valued mentors in the MyBase learning environment. …

Another appealing use of MyBase is assessing skills and aptitudes of new recruits:

Air Force systems must support the assessment and selection of the best and brightest to serve as future Airmen. Precise identification of viable recruits using advanced aptitude and skill assessment tools will ensure optimal selection and career field assignment and learning management systems will “push learning to the left.” The Airmen of Air Force 2.0 will supply the versatility and agility needed to increase Air Force combat capability in an era of smaller force levels and constrained financial resources to sustain them.

A program such a MyBase would allow targeted training exercises that can enhance and nurture decision-making abilities.

Advances in scenario-based virtual learning and decision simulation will mature and refine the learner’s innate talents and experiential skill sets, as well as give the learner an appreciation for the limits of software, hardware, and “brainware.” (pg. 13)

The paper shows recognition in the military that for today’s recruits a virtual world like MyBase will seem a familiar interface.

Our future Airmen are comfortable with these technologies and they will enjoy learning and working in these environments. Due to the sophisticated social networking websites in operation today, our newest Airmen will be extremely comfortable networking, collaborating, and learning through MyBase.

This MyBase project, along with other similar ventures underway or planned elsewhere in the military, will be worth watching to see how they develop and if they prove effective.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Virtual Inheritance

Ben Duranske (as well as Virtual Worlds News) picked up on an interesting article in the Swedish daily newspaper Göteborgs-Posten, the nation’s second largest. Although it is in Swedish, a couple of Entropia fans have posted translations at EntropiaForum.com (see here and a more polished version here). The main point of the article is that MindArk will begin allowing residents of Entropia to draw up wills to allocate rights to the decedent’s virtual assets. This is an interesting development, but hardly unexpected. The article quotes MindArk Chief Marketing Officer Carl Uggla about the motivation:

“There is land in the game of considerable value which if the player would die is uncertain who would claim [it],” says Carl Uggla.

In fact, at the 2006 State of Play/Terra Nova Symposium, William LaPiana, the Director of Estate Planning at New York Law School, observed that “Anything you own in a very broad sense that has value is property for purposes of these [estate] taxes.” (You can find audio of his comments here, under the Tax and Finance panel).

Of greater significance is the indication that Sweden has begun to tax virtual worlds, as pointed out in this passage:

The [Swedish version of the] IRS has since spring begun to tax the activities within online worlds. “We’re not performing any bigger investigations. It’s more of a service and a way for us to be clear about the rules. I have got questions from several entrepreneurs who want to start activities in these worlds and about how they should go about it. People want to do what’s right,” says Dag Hardyson at the Swedish IRS.

Martina Bertilsson sees the IRS's actions as the logical one. “it’s about validating this business sector,” she says. “A lot of what happens online is still in a legislative gray area and open for pure legal interpretation, but there are now rules implemented regarding income tax for people living in Sweden,” she says.

I believe the translator of this passage has substituted IRS in place of the Swedish tax agency, the Skatteverket. A look at the first sentence of this passage in the original article in Swedish confirms this to be the case: “Skatteverket har sedan våren börjat beskatta verksamheten inom onlinevärlden” (emphasis mine). Also, I’ve added quotation marks where I believe them to be appropriate, as they don't appear in the original article (perhaps Swedish doesn’t use them).

Regardless of the punctuation, the key take-away here is that Sweden has apparently stuck its fingers into the financial aspects of virtual worlds. This could be a precursor to similar moves by other E.U. nations, and even the United States.


Monday, June 23, 2008

Duranske on Virtual Law

Ben Duranske, the man behind the excellent site Virtually Blind, recently published a book on the state of the law in virtual worlds, titled, appropriately enough, Virtual Law. The book is a valuable contribution and I commend it to anyone with an interest in the topic.

The book is a timely addition to the literature, as most legal questions confronting virtual worlds remain largely unresolved. Ben does an admirable job of surveying the legal landscape and distilling the applicable statutes, case law, and legal doctrines into the most relevant principles for each area of law he covers. That he does so without resorting to too much legalese makes Virtual Law highly accessible, even to a non-lawyer like myself. Although published by the ABA, Ben is clearly writing for a wider audience than just fellow members of the bar.

With Ben’s gracious permission, I have selected a few passages from his book which tackle particularly important issues in virtual law today.

Property Law

Property rights are perhaps the thorniest legal question facing virtual worlds and the subject of the longest chapter in the book. Duranske does a superlative job at setting up the issue and reaching reasonable conclusions. His outline of the arguments for and against virtual property rights is extremely well assembled and easy to follow, incorporating the research of such scholars as Joshua Fairfield and Richard Bartle. His identification of misconceptions and faulty logic is well written, too. Take, for instance, this passage in which Duranske neatly debunks users’ intuitive first take on virtual property:

We have an instinct that because the item has obvious value, it must be an item that can be owned. The reality, however, is that the ability to sell something to someone else for money, while intuitively implying “ownership,” doesn’t establish anything at all from a legal perspective. (p. 87)

Duranske’s overall assessment of the virtual property rights issue is that such rights will come in to being sooner or later, and that an important legal distinction should be maintained between play worlds (e.g., Blizzard Entertainment’s World of Warcraft) and non-play worlds (e.g., Linden Lab’s Second Life):

This chapter will argue that the law needs to acknowledge and provide protection for virtual property, but that it must do so in a way that preserves virtual worlds and games as play spaces, at least to the extent that the developers desire their worlds to remain pure play spaces. On one hand, many game and virtual world providers seek to avoid real-life implications in their social and play spaces. Where providers take reasonable steps to draw a line between the real and the virtual, the world or game should be protected by the “magic circle” that protects other play spaces (from theme parks to family Monopoly games) from taking on inadvertent real-world implications. On the other hand, it is both inevitable and desirable that some game and virtual world designers will seek to include real money trade (RMT) and offer a real cash economy (RCE) in their platforms. Users of these platforms need the protection of virtual property law. (p. 81)

A sticking point for me is Duranske’s provision that “providers take reasonable steps” to qualify as a play space. The question of what is “reasonable” is left unanswered.

Duranske also examines the important issue of the End User License Agreement (EULA) and the Terms of Serve (TOS) agreement. Duranske recognizes that the central problem looming over these ubiquitous contracts is the absence of actual case law to back them up. Lacking litigated judgments, it is hard to know the power of such agreements. Duranske, however, believes that the courts will eventually uphold EULAs and TOS.

From a property law perspective, there is no good reason to believe that these provisions will not generally be found to be enforceable… (p. 89; emphasis in original)

Regarding legislation, Duranske believes that virtual property will come to exist, but warns against outside efforts to impose virtual property rights onto game spaces:

Any effort to legislate the existence of virtual property will – and should – be met by fierce resistance from the game design and user communities …. Forced commodification would ruin much of what is good about play spaces. (p. 97; emphasis in original)

Tax Law

Duranske’s chapter on tax law is a good starting point for analyzing the issue. He leads off with an excellent summary of the problem:

It seems intuitive that when a player is enriched entirely within a game world, the increase in character strength and accumulation of gold and valuable weaponry should not be taxable, even though it does represent an investment of time, and time clearly has a certain amount of “value” to the player. The wealth, so long as it remains within the magic circle of the game world, is pretend wealth. It is not any different than the accumulation of pretend wealth while playing Monopoly in one’s home with one’s friends.

However, unlike Monopoly dollars, currency, virtual goods, and skill increases in game worlds do have value outside the game world, precisely because they do represent an investment of time, or, from another perspective, an option not to invest a certain amount of time. (p. 227-228; emphasis in original)

While Duranske’s comparison is valid, I have to take issue with his underlying economic analysis. Value is not a question of “an investment of time.” After all, one could arguably “invest” an equal amount of time in playing Monopoly. The real difference, that which makes virtual assets valuable, is the simple fact that people are willing to pay money for them. The most basic way to value something is not what it costs to produce, but what another person will give you in exchange. And when it comes to World of Warcraft gold vs. Monopoly money, the unavoidable fact is that people can and do pay significant sums of U.S. dollars for the Warcraft gold, but rarely will anyone fork over their cash for Monopoly money. Of course, the main point – that virtual items have real value – remains unaltered, as are conclusions based on this point.

Duranske expands on the point he makes in the previous passage with a look at the issue of real-money trading (RMT). In particular, he points out that the only real barrier are the ineffective “click-through” contracts that players routinely agree to without reading.

The only thing prohibiting the sale of virtual goods from games and virtual worlds is a click-through agreement between the player and the game company – the practice is, of course, not prohibited by law. And however much game companies may express a desire to prohibit RMT, prohibitions in End User License Agreements and Terms of Service are simply not effective. (p. 228)

Duranske moves on to the heart of the tax question. He starts by setting up the legal framework for conducting such an analysis, succinctly laying out the core elements necessary for examining the virtual world tax question:

All tax analysis starts with Comm’r v. Glenshaw Glass Co. Under Glenshaw Glass, income is “any undeniable accession to wealth, which is clearly realized by the taxpayer, over which the taxpayer has complete dominion.” The key terms from the decision are “accession to wealth,” “clearly realized,” and “complete dominion.” In addition, the concept of “basis” must be understood. (p. 232)

With this framework established, Duranske considers each of the four key terms he identified, providing the appropriate legal interpretation and significance. Duranske then follows this legal analysis with the hypothetical “Wendy,” a participant of WoW and SL. By running Wendy through a series of plausible scenarios, Duranske is able to draw out the legal analysis based on Glenshaw Glass and apply it to virtual worlds. This approach is helpful in moving from abstract legal principles to meaningful application.

Duranske does a good job hitting the legal pressure points on taxation, but I personally found his analysis somewhat unsatisfying. Whether motivated by space considerations or a desire to avoid over-analyzing the question, Duranske appears to fall into the same trap as many commentators, namely only investigating the two extremes of Second Life and World of Warcraft. While these two ends of the virtual world spectrum are certainly important, it is equally important, I believe, to consider the worlds that don’t neatly fit into these two categories, as well as the dynamic reaction that worlds will have in response to tax laws. (See my earlier, related post “Apples & Oranges, or Shades of Grey?”) In the discrete WoW/SL dichotomy that Duranske lays out, it is easy to see how WoW falls inside the magic circle while Second Life lies outside. But what about, say, SOE's Everquest II, a seemingly pure game world in the model of WoW, but one that permits players to sell their characters via Live Gamer. Similarly, MindArk’s Entropia and even NCsoft’s Exteel exhibit characteristics of both WoW and SL. And how will publishers react once the tax rules are determined? Will developers respond by altering facets of their worlds so as to avoid taxes? What if developers want elements of both play and RMT spaces – is there any middle ground? I don’t necessarily have the answers to these questions myself, and I can hardly fault Duranske for not delving into every possibility. Still, it would make for a good next step of the analysis.

Criminal Law

One aspect of Virtual Law that generally serves the reader well is that Duranske does not easily get sidetracked into the minutia of the issues. He drills down to the heart of the issue at hand and discards extraneous or unnecessary aspects of the large issue. This focus is most evident in his chapter on criminal law.

Virtual crimes encompass a broad range of unsavory and/or unwanted activities. Examples include virtual prostitution, gambling, money laundering, fraud, terrorist training simulations, and virtual child pornography. Duranske addresses each of these generally and specifically (if only briefly), reaching the following rather simple overall assessment:

The application of criminal law to virtual worlds is the most headline-friendly aspect of virtual law.… These issues do not, however, raise many novel questions in virtual worlds. Most actual crimes that occur in virtual worlds are financial crimes, and they can be addressed through simple application of existing criminal codes. The laws regarding financial fraud, money laundering, data theft, and gambling have been updated to take into account Internet-based activity, so they already cover virtual worlds and games as written. (p. 197)

Conclusion

Virtual Law is an undeniably valuable contribution to the literature and worth reading for those seeking an understanding of the legal issues facing virtual worlds. Nothing I’ve read has done a better job at addressing all the myriad legal questions. Indeed, because Duranske’s analysis comes in book form, he has the ability to address a far wider breadth of issues than law review articles and other studies. As it is, I’ve only touched on a few of the many topics covered in Virtual Law. That’s a shame, because Duranske’s take on securities law, contract law, and privacy issues, to name a few, are worthy of discussion as well. That being said, you’ll just have to get the book and read it yourself to get the full treatment.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Leeroy Jenkins!

I realize that this has absolutely nothing to do with the economics of virtual worlds, but I can’t help but love this video. Yes, it’s been around a while, but every few months I see something about and I watch it again and it makes me laugh.



My favorite part: When Leeroy defensively proclaims "It's not my fault!" right after he causes everything to fall into the crapper.

For a little background on the video, the player, and its cultural significance, see the Wikipedia page.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Top 5 MMOGs?

The NPD Group has come out with its estimate of the top 5 virtual gaming worlds, as reported by Gamasutra.com and GamesIndustry.biz. NPD's list does not include the number of subscribers, so to put things in perspective I have added subscriber counts (in brackets) that I gathered from various sources on the web.

Q1 2008 – Top 5 MMOGs by Subscribers

  1. World of Warcraft [10 million subscribers]
  2. RuneScape [1.2 million subscribers]
  3. Lord of the Rings Online [1 million subscribers]
  4. Final Fantasy XI [500,000 subscribers]
  5. City of Heroes (CoH) [136,000 subscribers]
Overall, NPD estimated that there are approximately 11 million gaming subscribers per month in North America. The subscriber data was gathered over a six month period (October 2007 and March 2008). Unfortunately, NPD did not make public its estimates of individual subscriber counts, just the relative ranking. However, we know from NCsoft’s financial reports that CoH had 136,250 subscribers in the U.S. and Europe in December 2007.

When paired with subscription estimates, NPD’s list seem particularly striking for being so stratified. The drop-off of 9.9 million subscriptions between the #1 and #5 spots suggests a high degree of market concentration at the top, with many smaller players at the bottom. Raph Kosters has a good post on this large disparity.

The public part of the release had two additional nuggets of information. The first is demographic. According to NPD spokeswoman Anita Frazier:

While the majority of gaming website players are females over the age of 35, MMOG players are largely males under the age of 35.

The first part of this statement is a bit surprising, as gamers are typically thought to be young males, not females over 35. The second half is notable because the age figure is so high; this also implies that a large percent of MMOG players are over age 35. [NPD’s list of the gaming websites with the most subscribers are: 1) Pogo.com; 2) Realarcade.com; 3) Bigfishgames.com; 4) Gametap.com; and 5) Disney.com.]
The second bit of information is financial. Summing revenues from three categories – MMOs, casual games and consoles – yields more than $1 billion in annual revenue. NPD obtained this estimate by first estimating monthly average revenue at $87.2 million for the time period surveyed, and then multiplying that estimate by 12.

Although NPD’s list is interesting, it is not as revealing as it seems. First, it seems likely that a number of MMOs have subscriber bases close to or larger than CoH’s. Club Penguin from Disney has roughly 700,000 subscribers. CCP’s EVE Online reports having 220,000 subscribers at the end of 2007. NCsoft’s Lineage I & II had 2.1 million subscribers (86,000 in the U.S. and Europe). Sony Online Entertainment’s EverQuest I/II have some 250,000 subscribers and while Star Wars Galaxies is estimated to have some 100,000 subscribers. MMOGchart.com also estimates that Toontown Online has 100,000 subscribers and Dofus has 450,000 world-wide. Certainly there are important definitional and geographic differences between these estimates and NPD’s list, but the point remains that from a global perspective NPD’s list only reports on a segment of the metaverse.

NPD’s focus on subscribers also ignores the increasing use of microtransactions and/or RMT as a revenue source. I blogged about this trend in a recent post (“Money Transactions in WoW and NCsoft”), but see also the articles here, here and here. Some of the most popular virtual worlds (and granted, they are not all MMOGs) do not require a subscription, including Guild Wars (5 million games sold), Second Life (600,000 users logging in during past 2 weeks), Virtual MTV (600,000 registered accounts), Knight Online (4 million registered users), and Habbo (7 million unique visits per month). Sony Online Entertainment has been at the forefront of this shift toward use of microtransactions and RMT, implementing such capabilities into EverQuest II and the forthcoming The Agency. NCsoft’s Exteel, SOE’s upcoming Free Realms, MU Online from K2, and Nexon’s MapleStory (with 67 million registered users) are all free-to-play, making their profitability especially reliant on microtransactions/RMT (see here and here).

Friday, May 16, 2008

Research Conference in World of Warcraft

I had the pleasure of attending Saturday’s session of last weekend’s “Convergence of the Real and the Virtual,” a conference that took place inside World of Warcraft. Attendees had to be on the Earthen Ring server and have a Horde character. The locations varied by day, but on Saturday the session took place in the sewers of the Undercity.

I’ve attached some photos of session discussion (click to enlarge) that I took as well as a group photo (courtesy of Joanna Robinson) taken during the expedition to Booty Bay.The conference consisted of a research discussion followed by an expedition to different parts of the world. The expeditions were designed to highlight some of the more spectacular views and locations in WoW. The topics for each day were as follows:

Session 1: Research and World of Warcraft (May 9)
Session 2: Relationships between WoW and the "Real World" (May 10)
Session 3: The Future of Virtual Worlds (May 11)

Detail on the activities and discussions can be found on the conference wiki, including screenshots and video footage. Additional information on the conference is available from Virtual Worlds News and Science.

I found the session I attended to be interesting and insightful. I’ve posted the chat log from Saturday’s session for those interested. Tim Burke, a history professor at Swarthmore, made the following observation about the research value of virtual worlds:

My first angle of approach with virtual worlds is always to treat them as "accidental social simulations". They're richer and more complex than any model in normal social science. But they're simple enough to study in ways the world at large cannot be… Models in social science are predictable. Scholars can make them do what scholars want them to do. Virtual worlds aren't predictable: they have all the organic character of human society….So that's my answer to whether research in World of Warcraft is useful for understanding the real world. Of course it is. (and vice-versa). Yes, with very firm limits, but yes nevertheless.

It was also kind of exciting to be conducting a research-oriented discussion inside WoW, especially seeing all the other participants’ avatars ranging from Undead warriors to Tauren shaman Blood Elf thieves. The expedition was also an enjoyable group excursion. The underwater reefs off of Booty Bay were particularly neat to see (until, that is, I strayed too far from the group and was killed by a murloc).

Beyond the benefit of the session discussion itself, I left the conference with a couple important impressions. It seems desirable to see serious applications of MMOGs. In the real world, the most popular places for conferences are Tampa, San Diego, Atlanta and New Orleans. They are not places like Duluth, MN in January, or Odessa, TX in August. No slight to those cities, but people want the location of their conferences to be fun and exciting. The same goes for virtual conferences. If you are going to have a conference in a virtual world, why not hold it in a MMOG, where you can hand out goodie bags and participants can make friends for adventuring as well as research? In addition, to put a slightly different spin on the same point, it seems evident that such serious applications of MMOGs are inevitable. After all, as the most profitable sector of the virtual world market, MMOGs are more likely to produce technologically advanced worlds that attract serious applications. These impressions simply reinforce the points discussed in my earlier post, “Apples & Oranges, or Shades of Grey?”.

The conference was organized by Bill Bainbridge and John Bohannon. Bainbridge is currently affiliated with the Center for Social Complexity at George Mason University and is Co-Director of Human-Centered Computing at the National Science Foundation, while Bohannon is author of the Gonzo Scientist column in the AAAS journal Science.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Virtual Worlds & Pop Culture

Ren Reynolds has an interesting post up at Terra Nova about the mainstreaming of gaming and, indirectly, virtual worlds. That got me to think on the number of times virtual worlds had permeated plot lines of major TV shows. Although this list is likely not exhaustive, virtual worlds have made a central storyline for such popular prime-time shows as:

I am not sure if I would really count it, but The Daily Show also had a “news” story/paraody about the Congressional hearings, airing 4/7/2008 on Comedy Central.

I may be missing some shows or episodes, so feel free to rectify my oversight with a comment or an email to me and I will update the list. UPDATE: I will continue to post additions and updates to this list over time, so keep 'em coming.